ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2003 IGNACIO HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...WITH A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED IN VERY COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH RECENT ENHANCED IR IMAGES SHOW SOME WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS. TRMM DATA SHOWED A 10 N MI DIAMETER EYE WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL...AND FIRST-LIGHT VISUAL PICTURES SHOW A CLOUD-FILLED EYE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 5.0 FROM TAFB AND 4.5 FROM NESDIS AND KGWC. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 90 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC SINCE IT IS NOT CERTAIN WHETHER THE CORE WILL REMAIN OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE SEA OF CORTES OR MOVE OVER THE TERRAIN OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS FOR A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING AND THEN ASSUMES SOME INHIBITING INFLUENCE DUE TO LAND. HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER OPEN WATER...IGNACIO COULD BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER. THE MOTION HAS BEEN MOSTLY NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO APPEARS TO BE FILLING AND DRIFTING NORTHWARD. THEREFORE...DEEP-LAYER MEAN HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE. THE NOGAPS MODEL SHOWS A WEAKER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF IGNACIO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. THE GFS AND U.K. MET PREDICT A STRONGER RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE GUNA CONSENSUS. THIS IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK...AND KEEPS THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 23.3N 109.0W 90 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 23.8N 109.5W 100 KT 24HR VT 25/1200Z 24.4N 110.0W 95 KT 36HR VT 26/0000Z 25.0N 110.5W 90 KT 48HR VT 26/1200Z 25.7N 111.0W 80 KT 72HR VT 27/1200Z 27.5N 112.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 28/1200Z 29.0N 113.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 29/1200Z 30.5N 114.0W 60 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC