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Tropical Storm HILDA


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
8 AM PDT TUE AUG 12 2003
 
HILDA IS STILL GENERATING CONVECTION EAST OF THE CENTER...BUT
IS VOID OF CONVECTION ELSEWHERE SURROUNDING THE CENTER.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SINCE THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION REMAINS SIMILAR.  SEA SURFACE TEMP ANALYSES
INDICATE PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK (MID
20S C IF THE TRACK IS ON TARGET).  CONSEQUENTLY...WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AND HILDA SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. 
THE MODEL FORECASTS AGREE WITH SCENARIO AND NEITHER THE UKMET NOR
GFS INDICATE A CLEARLY IDENTIFIABLE CLOSED CIRCULATION BEYOND 36
HOURS.

THE MOTION OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS HAS BEEN ABOUT 285/12.  THE
MODELS AGREE HILDA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST
UNDER A LARGE DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM. THE FORECAST USES A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CONTINUITY...AND THE GFS AND UKMET FORECASTS...WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TOWRDS THE WEST AS THE LOW MOVES ALMOST DUE SOUTH OF
THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE.  
 
FORECASTER PETERSEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/1500Z 18.6N 128.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     13/0000Z 19.1N 129.9W    25 KT
 24HR VT     13/1200Z 19.5N 132.0W    25 KT
 36HR VT     14/0000Z 19.9N 134.2W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     14/1200Z 20.1N 136.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     15/1200Z 20.3N 140.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC