ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 8 AM PDT TUE AUG 12 2003 HILDA IS STILL GENERATING CONVECTION EAST OF THE CENTER...BUT IS VOID OF CONVECTION ELSEWHERE SURROUNDING THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SINCE THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION REMAINS SIMILAR. SEA SURFACE TEMP ANALYSES INDICATE PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK (MID 20S C IF THE TRACK IS ON TARGET). CONSEQUENTLY...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND HILDA SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. THE MODEL FORECASTS AGREE WITH SCENARIO AND NEITHER THE UKMET NOR GFS INDICATE A CLEARLY IDENTIFIABLE CLOSED CIRCULATION BEYOND 36 HOURS. THE MOTION OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS HAS BEEN ABOUT 285/12. THE MODELS AGREE HILDA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST UNDER A LARGE DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST USES A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...CONTINUITY...AND THE GFS AND UKMET FORECASTS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWRDS THE WEST AS THE LOW MOVES ALMOST DUE SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE. FORECASTER PETERSEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 18.6N 128.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 19.1N 129.9W 25 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 19.5N 132.0W 25 KT 36HR VT 14/0000Z 19.9N 134.2W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 14/1200Z 20.1N 136.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 15/1200Z 20.3N 140.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC