Tropical Storm HILDA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON AUG 11 2003

ADVISORY RE-TRANSMITTED DUE TO NETWORK COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF HILDA HAS BECOME COMPLETELY EXPOSED WELL TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION.  QUIKSCAT AND SSM/I
DATA INDICATED THE WINDS WERE STILL 35 KT PRIOR TO 16Z...BUT THERE
HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE DECAY OF THE CLOUD PATTERN SINCE THAT TIME.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 30 KT BASED ON SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 295/15.  HILDA SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST
TOWARD A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...FOLLOWED BY
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND LOW-LEVEL
STEERING BECOMES DOMINANT.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE
TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  HOWEVER...IT IS ALONG THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.

HILDA WILL BE MOVING INTO COLDER WATER AND INCREASING WESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
DECAY INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN 24-36 HR.  LARGE-SCALE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THE REMNANTS OF HILDA BEFORE 120
HR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL DO LIKEWISE.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/2100Z 18.8N 123.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     12/0600Z 19.2N 125.7W    25 KT
 24HR VT     12/1800Z 19.6N 128.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     13/0600Z 19.9N 130.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     13/1800Z 20.2N 132.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     14/1800Z 20.5N 137.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     15/1800Z 20.5N 142.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     16/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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