ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM RTD TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON AUG 11 2003 ADVISORY RE-TRANSMITTED DUE TO NETWORK COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF HILDA HAS BECOME COMPLETELY EXPOSED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION. QUIKSCAT AND SSM/I DATA INDICATED THE WINDS WERE STILL 35 KT PRIOR TO 16Z...BUT THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE DECAY OF THE CLOUD PATTERN SINCE THAT TIME. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 30 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 295/15. HILDA SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND LOW-LEVEL STEERING BECOMES DOMINANT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. HOWEVER...IT IS ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. HILDA WILL BE MOVING INTO COLDER WATER AND INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DECAY INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN 24-36 HR. LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THE REMNANTS OF HILDA BEFORE 120 HR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL DO LIKEWISE. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2100Z 18.8N 123.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 12/0600Z 19.2N 125.7W 25 KT 24HR VT 12/1800Z 19.6N 128.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 13/0600Z 19.9N 130.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 13/1800Z 20.2N 132.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 14/1800Z 20.5N 137.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 15/1800Z 20.5N 142.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC