Tropical Storm GUILLERMO

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE AUG 12 2003
 
A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CIRCULATION OF GUILLERMO.  BECAUSE OF THIS...THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT EVEN THOUGH THE SATELLITE NUMBERS 
ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER.  
 
THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN IR IMAGERY AND THERE HAS NOT
BEEN ANY RECENT MICROWAVE DATA.  HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT
GUILLERMO BASICALLY REMAINS ON TRACK...PERHAPS IT IS MOVING
SLIGHTLY FASTER.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/15.  GUILLERMO
IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THIS BASIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT A LITTLE FASTER DURING
THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS. 
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT TRICKY.  GUILLERMO IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATER AROUND 26C. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS
CURRENTLY UNDER NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR BUT...THE GFS INDICATES THE
SHEAR WILL RELAX.  THE SHIPS MODEL IS FORECASTING THE CYCLONE TO
RESTRENGTHEN. BUT...AS MENTION IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...IT APPEARS
THAT THE SOUTHERLY INFLOW INTO GUILLERMO IS BEING CUT OFF BY
SEVERAL ITCZ DISTURBANCES.  THEREFORE...THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED...PRESUMING THAT GUILLERMO WILL LOSE 
TO ITS COMPETITORS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA/BROWN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/1500Z 16.4N 139.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     13/0000Z 16.5N 141.4W    25 KT
 24HR VT     13/1200Z 16.7N 144.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     14/0000Z 16.7N 146.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     14/1200Z 16.7N 149.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     15/1200Z 16.7N 152.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     16/1200Z 16.5N 155.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     17/1200Z 16.5N 159.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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