ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT TUE AUG 12 2003 A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION OF GUILLERMO. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT EVEN THOUGH THE SATELLITE NUMBERS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER. THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN IR IMAGERY AND THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY RECENT MICROWAVE DATA. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT GUILLERMO BASICALLY REMAINS ON TRACK...PERHAPS IT IS MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/15. GUILLERMO IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THIS BASIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT A LITTLE FASTER DURING THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT TRICKY. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATER AROUND 26C. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY UNDER NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR BUT...THE GFS INDICATES THE SHEAR WILL RELAX. THE SHIPS MODEL IS FORECASTING THE CYCLONE TO RESTRENGTHEN. BUT...AS MENTION IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHERLY INFLOW INTO GUILLERMO IS BEING CUT OFF BY SEVERAL ITCZ DISTURBANCES. THEREFORE...THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED...PRESUMING THAT GUILLERMO WILL LOSE TO ITS COMPETITORS. FORECASTER AVILA/BROWN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 16.4N 139.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 16.5N 141.4W 25 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 16.7N 144.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 14/0000Z 16.7N 146.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 14/1200Z 16.7N 149.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 15/1200Z 16.7N 152.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 16/1200Z 16.5N 155.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 17/1200Z 16.5N 159.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC