Tropical Storm FELICIA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2003
 
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NMI OF WHAT IS NOW A
FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. IN FACT...A 22/0307Z
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY NOT EVEN BE A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...FELICIA IS BEING HELD ONTO FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE ADVISORY BASED ON SOME RECENT BURSTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 KT FROM SAB...25 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND AFWA...AND
20-25 KT QUIKSCAT WINDS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12. AS FELICIA WEAKENS AND
BECOMES MORE VERTICALLY SHALLOW...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE
STEERED GRADUALLY WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS.

FELICIA IS QUICKLY SUCCUMBING TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF WESTERLY
SHEAR AND COOL SSTS. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR ARE ALSO WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION AND ARE ADDING TO
THE WEAKENING PROCESS. THEREFORE...FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO
DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BY 24 HOURS...IF NOT 
SOONER. FORECAST POSITIONS AT 48 AND 72 HOURS ARE PROVIDED MAINLY
FOR CONTINUITY SINCE THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS
WEST OF 140W LONGITUDE BY 48 HOURS...WHICH IS THE RESPONSIBILITY OF
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER. HOWEVER...REGENERATION INTO A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT LIKELY WEST OF 140W GIVEN THAT
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INCREASE THE WESTERLY SHEAR TO MORE THAN
50 KT OVER AND EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0900Z 16.6N 130.8W    25 KT
 12HR VT     22/1800Z 17.0N 132.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     23/0600Z 17.6N 135.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     23/1800Z 18.2N 138.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     24/0600Z 18.6N 141.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     25/0600Z 19.3N 146.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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