ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2003 THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NMI OF WHAT IS NOW A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. IN FACT...A 22/0307Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY NOT EVEN BE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...FELICIA IS BEING HELD ONTO FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE ADVISORY BASED ON SOME RECENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT FROM SAB...25 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND AFWA...AND 20-25 KT QUIKSCAT WINDS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12. AS FELICIA WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE VERTICALLY SHALLOW...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED GRADUALLY WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS. FELICIA IS QUICKLY SUCCUMBING TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF WESTERLY SHEAR AND COOL SSTS. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ARE ALSO WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION AND ARE ADDING TO THE WEAKENING PROCESS. THEREFORE...FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BY 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. FORECAST POSITIONS AT 48 AND 72 HOURS ARE PROVIDED MAINLY FOR CONTINUITY SINCE THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS WEST OF 140W LONGITUDE BY 48 HOURS...WHICH IS THE RESPONSIBILITY OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER. HOWEVER...REGENERATION INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT LIKELY WEST OF 140W GIVEN THAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INCREASE THE WESTERLY SHEAR TO MORE THAN 50 KT OVER AND EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY 48 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 16.6N 130.8W 25 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 17.0N 132.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 23/0600Z 17.6N 135.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 23/1800Z 18.2N 138.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 24/0600Z 18.6N 141.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 25/0600Z 19.3N 146.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC