Tropical Storm ENRIQUE

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TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI JUL 11 2003
 
ENRIQUE CONTINUES TO SHOW IMPROVED BANDING EVEN THOUGH THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION IS DECREASING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE. 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 45 KT AND THAT IS THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.  VERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUES TO
DIMINISH AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS IMPROVING.  DESPITE THIS...
THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL CENTER
APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHICH MAY
BE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...MY INITIAL
POSITION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/8.  THE FORWARD SPEED HAS BEEN STEADILY
SLOWING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THIS WAS NOT FORECAST BY ANY OF
THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH CONTINUE TO SHOW TRANSLATION
SPEEDS OF 12-13 KT OR SO.  AS A GROUP...THE MODELS HAVE ALSO HAD A
RIGHTWARD BIAS.  THIS FASTER MODEL MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
APPEARS TO RESULT FROM A COMBINATION OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO
THE NORTHWEST OF ENRIQUE AND AN ANALYZED MID-LEVEL LOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST.  THE LATTER FEATURE MAY NOT EXIST IN THE REAL ATMOSPHERE
AND THE FORMER MAY BE GETTING TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE CYCLONE TO HAVE
MUCH EFFECT.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SOUTH AND SLOWER THAN ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...SAVE FOR CLIPER. 

FOR THE FIRST TIME...THE GFDL MODEL IS FORECASTING STRENGTHENING
MORE OR LESS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  ALTHOUGH THE
CONVECTION IS THIN RIGHT NOW...I EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DIURNAL BURST.  WITH THE SLOWER
FORECAST MOTION...THE WEAKENING TREND OVER COOLER WATERS MAY BE
SOMEWHAT DELAYED. 
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/2100Z 14.7N 111.5W    45 KT
 12HR VT     12/0600Z 14.9N 112.7W    50 KT
 24HR VT     12/1800Z 15.6N 114.7W    50 KT
 36HR VT     13/0600Z 16.4N 117.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     13/1800Z 17.0N 119.5W    35 KT
 72HR VT     14/1800Z 17.5N 124.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     15/1800Z 17.5N 128.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     16/1800Z 17.5N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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