ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI JUL 11 2003 ENRIQUE CONTINUES TO SHOW IMPROVED BANDING EVEN THOUGH THE AREAL COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION IS DECREASING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 45 KT AND THAT IS THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. VERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS IMPROVING. DESPITE THIS... THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL CENTER APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHICH MAY BE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...MY INITIAL POSITION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/8. THE FORWARD SPEED HAS BEEN STEADILY SLOWING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAS NOT FORECAST BY ANY OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH CONTINUE TO SHOW TRANSLATION SPEEDS OF 12-13 KT OR SO. AS A GROUP...THE MODELS HAVE ALSO HAD A RIGHTWARD BIAS. THIS FASTER MODEL MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST APPEARS TO RESULT FROM A COMBINATION OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF ENRIQUE AND AN ANALYZED MID-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE LATTER FEATURE MAY NOT EXIST IN THE REAL ATMOSPHERE AND THE FORMER MAY BE GETTING TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE CYCLONE TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SOUTH AND SLOWER THAN ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...SAVE FOR CLIPER. FOR THE FIRST TIME...THE GFDL MODEL IS FORECASTING STRENGTHENING MORE OR LESS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS THIN RIGHT NOW...I EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DIURNAL BURST. WITH THE SLOWER FORECAST MOTION...THE WEAKENING TREND OVER COOLER WATERS MAY BE SOMEWHAT DELAYED. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2100Z 14.7N 111.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 12/0600Z 14.9N 112.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 12/1800Z 15.6N 114.7W 50 KT 36HR VT 13/0600Z 16.4N 117.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 13/1800Z 17.0N 119.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 14/1800Z 17.5N 124.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 15/1800Z 17.5N 128.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 16/1800Z 17.5N 133.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC