Tropical Storm ENRIQUE

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TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI JUL 11 2003
 
MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM OVERNIGHT SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF ENRIQUE
IS NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE BUT UNDERNEATH THE DEEP COLD CONVECTION. 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM AFWA AND SAB AND 45 KT
FROM TAFB.  IF THE CENTER IS WHERE I THINK IT IS THEN ENRIQUE HAS
STRENGTHENED...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40
KT.  THERE APPEARS TO BE LESS SHEAR THAN YESTERDAY AND THE WATERS
WILL REMAIN WARM FOR ANOTHER 18 HOURS OR SO...SO SOME CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LESS
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...THOUGH...WHICH BRINGS ENRIQUE
TO 55 KT.  IF VISIBLE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THE CENTER IS
WELL-EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION THEN THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP FURTHER.  COOLER WATERS SHOULD INDUCE
WEAKENING AFTER 24 HOURS.

THE TRACK APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN PULLED LEFTWARD OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS...PERHAPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE PATTERN. 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/9.  HOWEVER...ALL GUIDANCE RETURNS THE
CYCLONE TO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK IN RESPONSE TO A SLIGHT
WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. 
THIS WEAKNESS IS APPARENT IN WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT REMAINS
ALONG THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  ONCE THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DECAY IT SHOULD RETURN TO A MORE WESTERLY TRACK.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/1500Z 14.8N 110.8W    40 KT
 12HR VT     12/0000Z 15.1N 112.6W    45 KT
 24HR VT     12/1200Z 16.0N 115.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     13/0000Z 17.0N 117.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     13/1200Z 18.0N 120.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     14/1200Z 19.0N 125.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     15/1200Z 19.0N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     16/1200Z 19.0N 136.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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