ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT FRI JUL 11 2003 MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM OVERNIGHT SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF ENRIQUE IS NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE BUT UNDERNEATH THE DEEP COLD CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM AFWA AND SAB AND 45 KT FROM TAFB. IF THE CENTER IS WHERE I THINK IT IS THEN ENRIQUE HAS STRENGTHENED...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT. THERE APPEARS TO BE LESS SHEAR THAN YESTERDAY AND THE WATERS WILL REMAIN WARM FOR ANOTHER 18 HOURS OR SO...SO SOME CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...THOUGH...WHICH BRINGS ENRIQUE TO 55 KT. IF VISIBLE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THE CENTER IS WELL-EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION THEN THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP FURTHER. COOLER WATERS SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING AFTER 24 HOURS. THE TRACK APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN PULLED LEFTWARD OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS...PERHAPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE PATTERN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/9. HOWEVER...ALL GUIDANCE RETURNS THE CYCLONE TO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK IN RESPONSE TO A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WEAKNESS IS APPARENT IN WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ONCE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DECAY IT SHOULD RETURN TO A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 14.8N 110.8W 40 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 15.1N 112.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 12/1200Z 16.0N 115.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 13/0000Z 17.0N 117.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 13/1200Z 18.0N 120.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 14/1200Z 19.0N 125.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 15/1200Z 19.0N 131.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 16/1200Z 19.0N 136.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC