Tropical Storm ANDRES

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TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED MAY 21 2003

BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUE TO OCCUR NEAR AND OVER THE CENTER
BUT THE BANDING FEATURES REMAIN POORLY DEFINED.  ANDRES' INTENSITY
HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO.  THE ENVIRONMENT IS
APPARENTLY NOT HOSTILE ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE...BUT SO FAR
NOT FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  THERE IS
STILL A LITTLE WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AND DRIER/MORE STABLE
AIR TO THE NORTHWEST.  HOWEVER SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE
CIRCULATION OF ANDRES IS ADVECTING A MORE FAVORABLE AIR MASS AROUND
IT...AND TO THE NORTHWEST.  MOREOVER THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO CALL FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THOSE FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.

ANDRES' MOTION CONTINUES SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST...AT A LITTLE
FASTER PACE OF 15 KT.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS ABOUT
THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THERE IS A STRONG
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ANDRES AND THIS STEERING
PATTERN SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  GLOBAL
MODEL PREDICTIONS INDICATE SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE LATER IN THE
PERIOD...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED.  THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...U. K.
MET. OFFICE...AND NOGAPS TRACKS. 

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0300Z 10.6N 114.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     22/1200Z 11.0N 116.5W    40 KT
 24HR VT     23/0000Z 11.5N 119.1W    45 KT
 36HR VT     23/1200Z 12.3N 121.6W    50 KT
 48HR VT     24/0000Z 13.0N 124.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     25/0000Z 14.5N 128.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     26/0000Z 16.0N 133.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     27/0000Z 17.0N 137.5W    30 KT
 
 
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