ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT WED MAY 21 2003 BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUE TO OCCUR NEAR AND OVER THE CENTER BUT THE BANDING FEATURES REMAIN POORLY DEFINED. ANDRES' INTENSITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO. THE ENVIRONMENT IS APPARENTLY NOT HOSTILE ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE...BUT SO FAR NOT FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AND DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION OF ANDRES IS ADVECTING A MORE FAVORABLE AIR MASS AROUND IT...AND TO THE NORTHWEST. MOREOVER THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CALL FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THOSE FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. ANDRES' MOTION CONTINUES SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST...AT A LITTLE FASTER PACE OF 15 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THERE IS A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ANDRES AND THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS INDICATE SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE LATER IN THE PERIOD...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...U. K. MET. OFFICE...AND NOGAPS TRACKS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 10.6N 114.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 11.0N 116.5W 40 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 11.5N 119.1W 45 KT 36HR VT 23/1200Z 12.3N 121.6W 50 KT 48HR VT 24/0000Z 13.0N 124.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 25/0000Z 14.5N 128.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 26/0000Z 16.0N 133.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 27/0000Z 17.0N 137.5W 30 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:55 UTC