Tropical Storm ANDRES

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TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE MAY 20 2003

ANDRES IS BEING AFFECTED BY SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WHICH HAS
INTERRUPTED THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS. THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER BRIEFLY
BECAME EXPOSED...BUT MORE RECENTLY DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED
OVER THE CENTER.  OVERALL...HOWEVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT AS
WELL ORGANIZED AS IT WAS EARLIER TODAY.  SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 35 KT.  GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT INDICATE PROHIBITIVELY STRONG SHEAR OVER
THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CALLS
FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO SHOWS SOME
INTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST
SINCE THE SHEAR COULD INCREASE.  STABLER AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF
ANDRES MIGHT ALSO BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR.

THE WESTWARD MOTION CONTINUES...AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE.  THE FLOW
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO STEER THE STORM ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A LITTLE MORE
ACCELERATION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0300Z  9.8N 107.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     21/1200Z 10.0N 109.8W    40 KT
 24HR VT     22/0000Z 10.4N 112.4W    45 KT
 36HR VT     22/1200Z 11.0N 115.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     23/0000Z 11.8N 117.6W    55 KT
 72HR VT     24/0000Z 13.5N 122.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     25/0000Z 15.5N 127.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     26/0000Z 16.5N 130.0W    30 KT
 
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