ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE MAY 20 2003 ANDRES IS BEING AFFECTED BY SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WHICH HAS INTERRUPTED THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS. THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER BRIEFLY BECAME EXPOSED...BUT MORE RECENTLY DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER. OVERALL...HOWEVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT AS WELL ORGANIZED AS IT WAS EARLIER TODAY. SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 35 KT. GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT INDICATE PROHIBITIVELY STRONG SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO SHOWS SOME INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST SINCE THE SHEAR COULD INCREASE. STABLER AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF ANDRES MIGHT ALSO BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. THE WESTWARD MOTION CONTINUES...AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE. THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE STORM ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A LITTLE MORE ACCELERATION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 9.8N 107.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 10.0N 109.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 22/0000Z 10.4N 112.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 22/1200Z 11.0N 115.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 23/0000Z 11.8N 117.6W 55 KT 72HR VT 24/0000Z 13.5N 122.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 25/0000Z 15.5N 127.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 26/0000Z 16.5N 130.0W 30 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:55 UTC