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Tropical Storm ODETTE


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST THU DEC 04 2003
 
DUE TO MECHANICAL PROBLEMS THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HEADING FOR THE
CYCLONE TURNED BACK TO BASE. THE NEXT FLIGHT IS SCHEDULED FOR
FRIDAY AT 12Z. NEVERTHELESS...HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM
ODETTE...THE 15TH NAMED STORM OF THE YEAR AND THE FIRST NAMED STORM
TO FORM IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN DECEMBER. 

THE CLOUD PATTERN IS VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
AND A WELL-DEFINED CURVED CLOUD BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT. THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR EXCEPT TO THE SOUTHWEST. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 35 KNOTS BUT IT COULD BE HIGHER
DUE TO THE STRUCTURE OBSERVED ON MICROWAVE DATA. THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...
ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED BEFORE THE CYCLONE BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL AND ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE.

ODETTE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND A STRONG APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ODETTE
SHOULD THEN MOVE BETWEEN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL. THE GFDL HAS
CONTINUED TO BE MOODY. ONE RUN MAKES ODETTE A HURRICANE AND THE
NEXT ONE DISSIPATES IT IN 24 HOURS.  

ODETTE SHOULD BRING VERY HEAVY RAINS AND MUD SLIDES TO HISPANIOLA...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF HAITI IN AREAS WHERE THE SOIL IS
ALREADY BARE AND DEFOLIATED. 

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/2100Z 14.0N  75.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 15.4N  74.8W    45 KT
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 18.5N  74.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 22.0N  72.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     06/1800Z 28.0N  68.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     07/1800Z...ABSORBED
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:02 UTC