ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST THU DEC 04 2003 DUE TO MECHANICAL PROBLEMS THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HEADING FOR THE CYCLONE TURNED BACK TO BASE. THE NEXT FLIGHT IS SCHEDULED FOR FRIDAY AT 12Z. NEVERTHELESS...HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM ODETTE...THE 15TH NAMED STORM OF THE YEAR AND THE FIRST NAMED STORM TO FORM IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN DECEMBER. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND A WELL-DEFINED CURVED CLOUD BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR EXCEPT TO THE SOUTHWEST. INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 35 KNOTS BUT IT COULD BE HIGHER DUE TO THE STRUCTURE OBSERVED ON MICROWAVE DATA. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREFORE... ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED BEFORE THE CYCLONE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE. ODETTE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND A STRONG APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ODETTE SHOULD THEN MOVE BETWEEN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL. THE GFDL HAS CONTINUED TO BE MOODY. ONE RUN MAKES ODETTE A HURRICANE AND THE NEXT ONE DISSIPATES IT IN 24 HOURS. ODETTE SHOULD BRING VERY HEAVY RAINS AND MUD SLIDES TO HISPANIOLA... ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF HAITI IN AREAS WHERE THE SOIL IS ALREADY BARE AND DEFOLIATED. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 14.0N 75.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 15.4N 74.8W 45 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 18.5N 74.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 06/0600Z 22.0N 72.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 06/1800Z 28.0N 68.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 07/1800Z...ABSORBED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:02 UTC