Tropical Depression NINETEEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2003
 
NEITHER INFRARED NOR MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CLEAR CENTER
POSITION THIS EVENING...WHILE A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 21Z SUGGESTS A
BROAD AND EAST-WEST-ELONGATED CIRCULATION.  THE INITIAL POSITION
AND MOTION ARE LARGELY BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  THERE HAS BEEN NO APPRECIABLE IMPROVEMENT IN
ORGANIZATION...AS THE CENTER REMAINS WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. 
HOWEVER...THE QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS COULD
BE AS HIGH AS 30 KT.  WITH CONSENSUS DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 KT AS
WELL...THAT WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.

THE 18Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND NOGAPS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL
NOT MAKE MUCH WESTWARD PROGRESS.  THERE IS CURRENTLY A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THIS WEAKNESS WILL BE
REINFORCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 45 DEGREES WEST THAT IS
DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD.  THE CANADIAN MODEL ALLOWS THE DEPRESSION TO
ESCAPE THIS WEAKNESS AND GET FARTHER WEST...BUT THIS MODEL IS
ALREADY TOO FAR WEST WITH THE SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT STILL
SHOWS MORE WESTWARD MOTION THAN EITHER THE GFS...UKMET...OR NOGAPS
MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFDL MODEL...WHICH RECURVES THE SYSTEM NEAR 45W.

BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS FORECAST THE DEPRESSION TO REACH
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT SOUTHERLY SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR
INTENSIFICATION.  GIVEN THIS AND THE POOR CURRENT ORGANIZATION OF
THE CYCLONE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LESS AGGRESSIVE.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0300Z  9.9N  39.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     14/1200Z 10.0N  40.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     15/0000Z 10.4N  41.3W    40 KT
 36HR VT     15/1200Z 11.0N  42.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     16/0000Z 11.5N  42.5W    50 KT
 72HR VT     17/0000Z 12.0N  43.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     18/0000Z 13.0N  44.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     19/0000Z 15.0N  44.0W    60 KT
 
 
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