ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2003 NEITHER INFRARED NOR MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CLEAR CENTER POSITION THIS EVENING...WHILE A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 21Z SUGGESTS A BROAD AND EAST-WEST-ELONGATED CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION ARE LARGELY BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THERE HAS BEEN NO APPRECIABLE IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION...AS THE CENTER REMAINS WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 30 KT. WITH CONSENSUS DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 KT AS WELL...THAT WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE 18Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND NOGAPS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL NOT MAKE MUCH WESTWARD PROGRESS. THERE IS CURRENTLY A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THIS WEAKNESS WILL BE REINFORCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 45 DEGREES WEST THAT IS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD. THE CANADIAN MODEL ALLOWS THE DEPRESSION TO ESCAPE THIS WEAKNESS AND GET FARTHER WEST...BUT THIS MODEL IS ALREADY TOO FAR WEST WITH THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT STILL SHOWS MORE WESTWARD MOTION THAN EITHER THE GFS...UKMET...OR NOGAPS MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH RECURVES THE SYSTEM NEAR 45W. BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS FORECAST THE DEPRESSION TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT SOUTHERLY SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR INTENSIFICATION. GIVEN THIS AND THE POOR CURRENT ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LESS AGGRESSIVE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 9.9N 39.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/1200Z 10.0N 40.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 15/0000Z 10.4N 41.3W 40 KT 36HR VT 15/1200Z 11.0N 42.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 16/0000Z 11.5N 42.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 17/0000Z 12.0N 43.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 18/0000Z 13.0N 44.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 19/0000Z 15.0N 44.0W 60 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC