Tropical Storm LARRY
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TROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 05 2003
ALTHOUGH THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO FIX THE 850 MB
CENTER OFFSHORE JUST BEFORE 18Z...THEY REPORTED THAT THE SURFACE
CENTER WAS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND INLAND. BY 19Z THE 850 MB
CENTER WAS ALSO INLAND. A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT DID
REPORT SURFACE WINDS OF 37 KT...SO WE NEED TO HANG ON TO LARRY AS A
TROPICAL STORM JUST A LITTLE LONGER. IT SHOULD BE POSSIBLE TO
LOWER THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE AN ERRATIC DRIFT...GENERALLY TO
THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. THE GUIDANCE IS BECOMING LESS ENTHUSIASTIC
ABOUT A RE-EMERGENCE INTO THE PACIFIC...WITH THE LATEST RUN OF THE
GFS KEEPING THE 850 MB VORTICITY CENTER OVER LAND. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR DISSIPATION...RATHER THAN REGENERATION.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/2100Z 18.2N 93.8W 35 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 06/0600Z 17.7N 93.9W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 06/1800Z 17.1N 94.1W 25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 07/0600Z 16.5N 94.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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