ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN OCT 05 2003 ALTHOUGH THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO FIX THE 850 MB CENTER OFFSHORE JUST BEFORE 18Z...THEY REPORTED THAT THE SURFACE CENTER WAS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND INLAND. BY 19Z THE 850 MB CENTER WAS ALSO INLAND. A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT DID REPORT SURFACE WINDS OF 37 KT...SO WE NEED TO HANG ON TO LARRY AS A TROPICAL STORM JUST A LITTLE LONGER. IT SHOULD BE POSSIBLE TO LOWER THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE AN ERRATIC DRIFT...GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. THE GUIDANCE IS BECOMING LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT A RE-EMERGENCE INTO THE PACIFIC...WITH THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS KEEPING THE 850 MB VORTICITY CENTER OVER LAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR DISSIPATION...RATHER THAN REGENERATION. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/2100Z 18.2N 93.8W 35 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 06/0600Z 17.7N 93.9W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 06/1800Z 17.1N 94.1W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 07/0600Z 16.5N 94.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC