Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane KATE


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 04 2003

VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT KATE HAS
CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN AT T5.5/102KT WHILE THE DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE
DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO T5.0/90 KT. HOWEVER, A NEARLY SOLID RING OF
COLDER TOPPED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AROUND THE WELL-DEFINED
20-25 NMI DIAMETER EYE SINCE THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 100 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND HAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. THE TRACK WAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD OR LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE MORE
SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION. HOWEVER...BY 36-48 HOURS...THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK. ALL OF THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT KATE SHOULD BEGIN TO RECURVE BY 24-36
HOURS...AND THEN RAPIDLY ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS AS
THE HURRICANE GETS CAPTURED BY AN APPROACHING STRONG LONGWAVE
TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUDNAY.
ALSO...WHILE KATE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY 72
HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN BEFORE THAT
TIME...AND A 60 H POSITION WOULD BE NEAR 43N 55W. THIS MOTION WOULD
TAKE KATE VERY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST TIP OF NEWFOUNDLAND BETWEEN 60-72
HOURS.

KATE HAS MAINTAINED A TRACK OVER WARM WATER AND THIS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE 36 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...BY 24 HOURS...INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN A STEADY BUT SLOW
WEAKENING TREND.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/1500Z 30.1N  53.3W   100 KT
 12HR VT     05/0000Z 30.4N  55.0W   100 KT
 24HR VT     05/1200Z 31.7N  56.6W    95 KT
 36HR VT     06/0000Z 33.5N  57.3W    90 KT
 48HR VT     06/1200Z 37.0N  57.2W    80 KT
 72HR VT     07/1200Z 47.5N  51.0W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     08/1200Z 56.5N  34.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     09/1200Z 62.5N   8.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC