ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT OCT 04 2003 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT KATE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT T5.5/102KT WHILE THE DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO T5.0/90 KT. HOWEVER, A NEARLY SOLID RING OF COLDER TOPPED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AROUND THE WELL-DEFINED 20-25 NMI DIAMETER EYE SINCE THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 100 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND HAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. THE TRACK WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD OR LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION. HOWEVER...BY 36-48 HOURS...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT KATE SHOULD BEGIN TO RECURVE BY 24-36 HOURS...AND THEN RAPIDLY ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE GETS CAPTURED BY AN APPROACHING STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUDNAY. ALSO...WHILE KATE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN BEFORE THAT TIME...AND A 60 H POSITION WOULD BE NEAR 43N 55W. THIS MOTION WOULD TAKE KATE VERY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST TIP OF NEWFOUNDLAND BETWEEN 60-72 HOURS. KATE HAS MAINTAINED A TRACK OVER WARM WATER AND THIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 36 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...BY 24 HOURS...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN A STEADY BUT SLOW WEAKENING TREND. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 30.1N 53.3W 100 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 30.4N 55.0W 100 KT 24HR VT 05/1200Z 31.7N 56.6W 95 KT 36HR VT 06/0000Z 33.5N 57.3W 90 KT 48HR VT 06/1200Z 37.0N 57.2W 80 KT 72HR VT 07/1200Z 47.5N 51.0W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 08/1200Z 56.5N 34.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 09/1200Z 62.5N 8.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC