Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane KATE


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2003
 
THE EYE OF KATE HAS BEEN BLINKING IN AND OUT OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY WARMER THAN -60C. 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AS WELL AS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY...
REMAIN AT 65 KT.  THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO
THE EAST BUT NOT MUCH ELSEWHERE.  INTERESTINGLY...A RECENT QUIKSCAT
PASS DID NOT SHOW ANY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS LIKE THE PASS OF A
COUPLE NIGHTS AGO WHEN THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE WAS LESS IMPRESSIVE.

KATE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 245/12...BUT MIGHT BE EVEN LEFT OF
THAT OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN
NUDGED SOUTHWARD BUT IS BASICALLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 
KATE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER
ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE HURRICANE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS.  THE
UKMET HAS A TRACK THAT IS FARTHER NORTH AND MUCH FASTER THAN THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE.

WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF KATE HAS LITTLE SHEAR...THE
HURRICANE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE SCALE UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW. 
GIVEN THIS PATTERN...IT IS HARD FOR ME TO SEE KATE DEVELOPING
STRONG OUTFLOW AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS
AGRESSIVE AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  IF KATE CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER
SOUTH THAN EXPECTED...THEN INCREASING SSTS WOULD FAVOR A LITTLE
MORE STRENGTHENING.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0300Z 30.7N  42.7W    65 KT
 12HR VT     02/1200Z 30.2N  44.5W    70 KT
 24HR VT     03/0000Z 30.0N  47.0W    75 KT
 36HR VT     03/1200Z 30.2N  49.4W    80 KT
 48HR VT     04/0000Z 30.5N  51.5W    80 KT
 72HR VT     05/0000Z 31.5N  54.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     06/0000Z 34.0N  57.0W    75 KT
120HR VT     07/0000Z 37.5N  58.5W    70 KT
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC