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Hurricane KATE (Text)

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HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2003
 
THE EYE OF KATE HAS BEEN BLINKING IN AND OUT OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY WARMER THAN -60C. 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AS WELL AS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY...
REMAIN AT 65 KT.  THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO
THE EAST BUT NOT MUCH ELSEWHERE.  INTERESTINGLY...A RECENT QUIKSCAT
PASS DID NOT SHOW ANY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS LIKE THE PASS OF A
COUPLE NIGHTS AGO WHEN THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE WAS LESS IMPRESSIVE.

KATE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 245/12...BUT MIGHT BE EVEN LEFT OF
THAT OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN
NUDGED SOUTHWARD BUT IS BASICALLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 
KATE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER
ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE HURRICANE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS.  THE
UKMET HAS A TRACK THAT IS FARTHER NORTH AND MUCH FASTER THAN THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE.

WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF KATE HAS LITTLE SHEAR...THE
HURRICANE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE SCALE UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW. 
GIVEN THIS PATTERN...IT IS HARD FOR ME TO SEE KATE DEVELOPING
STRONG OUTFLOW AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS
AGRESSIVE AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  IF KATE CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER
SOUTH THAN EXPECTED...THEN INCREASING SSTS WOULD FAVOR A LITTLE
MORE STRENGTHENING.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0300Z 30.7N  42.7W    65 KT
 12HR VT     02/1200Z 30.2N  44.5W    70 KT
 24HR VT     03/0000Z 30.0N  47.0W    75 KT
 36HR VT     03/1200Z 30.2N  49.4W    80 KT
 48HR VT     04/0000Z 30.5N  51.5W    80 KT
 72HR VT     05/0000Z 31.5N  54.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     06/0000Z 34.0N  57.0W    75 KT
120HR VT     07/0000Z 37.5N  58.5W    70 KT
 
 
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