Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane KATE


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2003
 
KATE HAS DEVELOPED A CLOUD-FILLED EYE WITH A GOOD BANDING STRUCTURE. 
WHILE THE CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE ONLY -50C TO -60C...THE STRUCTURE IS
GOOD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM
TAFB AND SAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA.  BASED ON THE ESTIMATES AND THE
PRESENCE OF THE EYE...KATE IS UPGRADED TO A 65 KT HURRICANE.

KATE HAS MOVED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH THE
INITIAL MOTION NOW 255/11.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO CHANGE TO
THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  KATE IS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS ALONG 28N-29N 
BETWEEN 38W-51W.  THE RIDGE SHOULD STEER KATE ON A GENERAL
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR 48-72 HR...AS INDICATED BY ALL THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS.  AFTER 72 HR...MOST GUIDANCE TURNS THE STORM
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.
THE TRACK IS NUDGED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR
THE FIRST 96 HR AND IS MORE OR LESS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
 
WHILE THE DETAILS DIFFER...LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL FORECAST GENERALLY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THROUGH 72 HR.  THIS WOULD ALLOW KATE
TO STRENGTHEN IF THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH.  THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE STORM OVER 27C SSTS...SO GIVEN
THAT AND CURRENT TRENDS THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AGAIN NUDGED
UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF KATE
DOES NOT DIP AS FAR SOUTH AS FORECAST...IT WILL STAY OVER COOLER
SSTS WHICH WOULD AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION.  THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS FORECAST KATE TO ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT WESTERLIES AFTER 72
HR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR WEAKENING DURING THAT
TIME.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/2100Z 31.5N  41.6W    65 KT
 12HR VT     02/0600Z 31.2N  43.3W    75 KT
 24HR VT     02/1800Z 30.6N  45.8W    80 KT
 36HR VT     03/0600Z 30.5N  48.0W    85 KT
 48HR VT     03/1800Z 30.5N  50.4W    85 KT
 72HR VT     04/1800Z 31.5N  53.5W    80 KT
 96HR VT     05/1800Z 33.5N  56.0W    75 KT
120HR VT     06/1800Z 36.5N  57.5W    70 KT
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC