ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2003 KATE HAS DEVELOPED A CLOUD-FILLED EYE WITH A GOOD BANDING STRUCTURE. WHILE THE CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE ONLY -50C TO -60C...THE STRUCTURE IS GOOD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON THE ESTIMATES AND THE PRESENCE OF THE EYE...KATE IS UPGRADED TO A 65 KT HURRICANE. KATE HAS MOVED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 255/11. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. KATE IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS ALONG 28N-29N BETWEEN 38W-51W. THE RIDGE SHOULD STEER KATE ON A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR 48-72 HR...AS INDICATED BY ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. AFTER 72 HR...MOST GUIDANCE TURNS THE STORM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. THE TRACK IS NUDGED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 96 HR AND IS MORE OR LESS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. WHILE THE DETAILS DIFFER...LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL FORECAST GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THROUGH 72 HR. THIS WOULD ALLOW KATE TO STRENGTHEN IF THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE STORM OVER 27C SSTS...SO GIVEN THAT AND CURRENT TRENDS THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AGAIN NUDGED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF KATE DOES NOT DIP AS FAR SOUTH AS FORECAST...IT WILL STAY OVER COOLER SSTS WHICH WOULD AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST KATE TO ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT WESTERLIES AFTER 72 HR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR WEAKENING DURING THAT TIME. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 31.5N 41.6W 65 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 31.2N 43.3W 75 KT 24HR VT 02/1800Z 30.6N 45.8W 80 KT 36HR VT 03/0600Z 30.5N 48.0W 85 KT 48HR VT 03/1800Z 30.5N 50.4W 85 KT 72HR VT 04/1800Z 31.5N 53.5W 80 KT 96HR VT 05/1800Z 33.5N 56.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 06/1800Z 36.5N 57.5W 70 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC