Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane KATE


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2003
 
KATE REMAINS UNDER SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR AS EVIDENCED FROM THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SLIGHLY DECREASED TO 50 KT DUE TO THE PARTLY EXPOSED
CENTER...WITH THE MOST RECENT SAB INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/09. THE
GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET/NOGAPS...ETC
MODELS AGREE ON KATE TAKING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK DUE TO A
BUILDING DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE TO ITS NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK CONTINUES TO INDICATE KATE SHOULD TRACK AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THIS ANTICYCLONE.  THIS TRACK IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSE TO THE UKMET AND NOGAPS FORECASTS. THE
CANADIAN AND GFS FORECASTS SHOW POSITIONS FURTHER SOUTH THAN
INDICATED IN THE 18Z ANALYZED POSITION...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
STARTS AND STAYS NORTH OF THESE MODELS.  
 
THE GFS FORECAST WIND PROFILES INDICATE A RELAXATION OF THE VERTICAL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...WITH THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGING KATE OVER
26-28C WATER THROUGH 96 HOURS AND THEN SST VALUES SLOWLY DROPPING
INTO THE MID 20S C THEREAFTER. A SLOW INTENSIFICATION TREND IS
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST THREE DAYS BUT SST VALUES ARE LOW FOR A
HURRICANE.  THE SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS REFLECTED IN THE SHIPS
FORECAST AS WELL.  A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS INDICATED AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST AS THE TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH BRINGS KATE OVER COOLER
WATERS...ALSO SUPPORTED BY SHIPS.
 
FORECASTER PETERSEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/2100Z 32.6N  36.4W    50 KT
 12HR VT     01/0600Z 32.7N  37.7W    50 KT
 24HR VT     01/1800Z 32.6N  39.8W    55 KT
 36HR VT     02/0600Z 32.4N  41.5W    60 KT
 48HR VT     02/1800Z 32.4N  43.7W    60 KT
 72HR VT     03/1800Z 32.7N  47.7W    65 KT
 96HR VT     04/1800Z 33.7N  51.2W    65 KT
120HR VT     05/1800Z 35.0N  53.4W    60 KT
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC