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Hurricane KATE (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2003
 
KATE REMAINS UNDER SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR AS EVIDENCED FROM THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SLIGHLY DECREASED TO 50 KT DUE TO THE PARTLY EXPOSED
CENTER...WITH THE MOST RECENT SAB INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/09. THE
GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET/NOGAPS...ETC
MODELS AGREE ON KATE TAKING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK DUE TO A
BUILDING DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE TO ITS NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK CONTINUES TO INDICATE KATE SHOULD TRACK AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THIS ANTICYCLONE.  THIS TRACK IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSE TO THE UKMET AND NOGAPS FORECASTS. THE
CANADIAN AND GFS FORECASTS SHOW POSITIONS FURTHER SOUTH THAN
INDICATED IN THE 18Z ANALYZED POSITION...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
STARTS AND STAYS NORTH OF THESE MODELS.  
 
THE GFS FORECAST WIND PROFILES INDICATE A RELAXATION OF THE VERTICAL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...WITH THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGING KATE OVER
26-28C WATER THROUGH 96 HOURS AND THEN SST VALUES SLOWLY DROPPING
INTO THE MID 20S C THEREAFTER. A SLOW INTENSIFICATION TREND IS
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST THREE DAYS BUT SST VALUES ARE LOW FOR A
HURRICANE.  THE SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS REFLECTED IN THE SHIPS
FORECAST AS WELL.  A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS INDICATED AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST AS THE TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH BRINGS KATE OVER COOLER
WATERS...ALSO SUPPORTED BY SHIPS.
 
FORECASTER PETERSEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/2100Z 32.6N  36.4W    50 KT
 12HR VT     01/0600Z 32.7N  37.7W    50 KT
 24HR VT     01/1800Z 32.6N  39.8W    55 KT
 36HR VT     02/0600Z 32.4N  41.5W    60 KT
 48HR VT     02/1800Z 32.4N  43.7W    60 KT
 72HR VT     03/1800Z 32.7N  47.7W    65 KT
 96HR VT     04/1800Z 33.7N  51.2W    65 KT
120HR VT     05/1800Z 35.0N  53.4W    60 KT
 
 
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