Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm KATE


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2003
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/15.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH CAUSING DECELERATION AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS A
CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE.

DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER BUT IT IS NOT
WELL ORGANIZED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45/55/55 KT FROM
AFGWC/TAFB/SAB AND THE OFFICIAL ESTIMATE FOR 03Z REMAINS AT 50
KNOTS.  THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR STRENGTHENING WITH
OVER 30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS ALSO FOR LITTLE CHANGE.  ONLY THE GFDL MODEL FORECASTS
ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AND THIS IS DISCOUNTED BECAUSE OF THE
LARGE SHEAR VALUE.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0300Z 26.7N  40.7W    50 KT
 12HR VT     29/1200Z 28.0N  39.2W    50 KT
 24HR VT     30/0000Z 29.3N  37.5W    55 KT
 36HR VT     30/1200Z 30.2N  36.7W    55 KT
 48HR VT     01/0000Z 31.0N  36.7W    55 KT
 72HR VT     02/0000Z 31.5N  38.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     03/0000Z 32.0N  39.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     04/0000Z 33.0N  42.0W    45 KT
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC