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Tropical Storm KATE (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2003
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/15.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH CAUSING DECELERATION AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS A
CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE.

DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER BUT IT IS NOT
WELL ORGANIZED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45/55/55 KT FROM
AFGWC/TAFB/SAB AND THE OFFICIAL ESTIMATE FOR 03Z REMAINS AT 50
KNOTS.  THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR STRENGTHENING WITH
OVER 30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS ALSO FOR LITTLE CHANGE.  ONLY THE GFDL MODEL FORECASTS
ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AND THIS IS DISCOUNTED BECAUSE OF THE
LARGE SHEAR VALUE.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0300Z 26.7N  40.7W    50 KT
 12HR VT     29/1200Z 28.0N  39.2W    50 KT
 24HR VT     30/0000Z 29.3N  37.5W    55 KT
 36HR VT     30/1200Z 30.2N  36.7W    55 KT
 48HR VT     01/0000Z 31.0N  36.7W    55 KT
 72HR VT     02/0000Z 31.5N  38.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     03/0000Z 32.0N  39.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     04/0000Z 33.0N  42.0W    45 KT
 
 
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