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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2003
 
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN IS
BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED.  THE POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
NOW ABOUT 100 NM FROM THE NEAREST CONVECTION...AND THE CIRCULATION
IS BECOMING PART OF AN BROAD TROUGH.  QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW WINDS OF
ABOUT 20 KT...WHILE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW NO WINDS HIGHER THAT
15 KT AT THIS TIME.  BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
SAB AND AFWA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS A LIKELY GENEROUS 25
KT.

BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CAUSED BY A
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR AND TO THE NORTHWEST...THE
DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OR WEAKEN TO A BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HR.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/8...AND A
NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL ACCELERATION
IS FORECAST UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH ALL NHC
TRACK GUIDANCE.
 
ISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION COULD STILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/1500Z 16.3N  25.3W    25 KT
 12HR VT     11/0000Z 17.7N  25.6W    25 KT
 24HR VT     11/1200Z 20.0N  26.6W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC