ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2003 VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED. THE POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW ABOUT 100 NM FROM THE NEAREST CONVECTION...AND THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING PART OF AN BROAD TROUGH. QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW WINDS OF ABOUT 20 KT...WHILE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW NO WINDS HIGHER THAT 15 KT AT THIS TIME. BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND AFWA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS A LIKELY GENEROUS 25 KT. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CAUSED BY A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR AND TO THE NORTHWEST...THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OR WEAKEN TO A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/8...AND A NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL ACCELERATION IS FORECAST UNTIL DISSIPATION. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH ALL NHC TRACK GUIDANCE. ISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION COULD STILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 16.3N 25.3W 25 KT 12HR VT 11/0000Z 17.7N 25.6W 25 KT 24HR VT 11/1200Z 20.0N 26.6W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC