Hurricane ISABEL

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HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  50
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2003
 
THE LARGE EYEWALL OF ISABEL IS COMING ASHORE ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS.  ALTHOUGH AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 111 KT...SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
SUBSTATIALLY LOWER...ABOUT 85 KT.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE CENTER MAKING LANDFALL.  ALTHOUGH ISABEL WILL
WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FELT IN THE
FORM OF HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS WELL INLAND OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND...AS WELL AS ON
HIGH RISE BUILDINGS AND OTHER STRUCTURES IN MAJOR METROPOLITAN
AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE PATH OF ISABEL.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.  ISABEL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 36 HOURS AND BE ABSORBED
AFTER 48 HOURS. 

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/1500Z 34.4N  75.7W    85 KT
 12HR VT     19/0000Z 36.5N  77.3W    65 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     19/1200Z 39.7N  78.7W    45 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     20/0000Z 44.5N  78.7W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 
 48HR VT     20/1200Z 50.5N  77.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     21/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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