ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 50 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2003 THE LARGE EYEWALL OF ISABEL IS COMING ASHORE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. ALTHOUGH AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 111 KT...SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE SUBSTATIALLY LOWER...ABOUT 85 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE CENTER MAKING LANDFALL. ALTHOUGH ISABEL WILL WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FELT IN THE FORM OF HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS WELL INLAND OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND...AS WELL AS ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS AND OTHER STRUCTURES IN MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE PATH OF ISABEL. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 36 HOURS AND BE ABSORBED AFTER 48 HOURS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 34.4N 75.7W 85 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 36.5N 77.3W 65 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 19/1200Z 39.7N 78.7W 45 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 20/0000Z 44.5N 78.7W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 20/1200Z 50.5N 77.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 21/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC