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Tropical Storm HENRI


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2003
 
HENRI ABRUPTLY ACCELERATED THIS MORNING AND MOVED INLAND NEAR TAMPA
AROUND 9Z.  THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A SMALL AREA OF
RELATIVELY UNIFORM AND RAPID SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A
DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS ENHANCED SYNOPTIC GRADIENT
WEAKENS MARKEDLY NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS SO THE CURRENT RAPID INITIAL
MOTION...060/17...SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. 
THE 6Z GFS AND GFDL MODELS CAPTURED THE ACCELERATION OF HENRI. 
THESE TWO MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND FORM THE BASIS FOR THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR A SLOWING OF THE MOTION OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF HENRI.

BECAUSE THE SHEAR HAS TEMPORARILY LESSENED...HENRI WILL HAVE A BRIEF
OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME ONCE THE CENTER EMERGES INTO THE
ATLANTIC.  HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH BUILDS NORTH OF HENRI AND THE LOW
LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW REVERSES...THE SHEAR IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO
INCREASE.  IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...THE CIRCULATION SHOULD GRADUALLY
ELONGATE AND BECOME LOST WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY NORTH OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE LARGE EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS SHOWN AT 72 HOURS IS ONLY INDIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH HENRI.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/1500Z 28.7N  81.2W    25 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     07/0000Z 29.8N  79.4W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 24HR VT     07/1200Z 31.0N  77.5W    35 KT
 36HR VT     08/0000Z 31.6N  76.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     08/1200Z 32.0N  75.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     09/1200Z 32.5N  74.0W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     10/1200Z 33.5N  71.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     11/1200Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC