ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2003 HENRI ABRUPTLY ACCELERATED THIS MORNING AND MOVED INLAND NEAR TAMPA AROUND 9Z. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A SMALL AREA OF RELATIVELY UNIFORM AND RAPID SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS ENHANCED SYNOPTIC GRADIENT WEAKENS MARKEDLY NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS SO THE CURRENT RAPID INITIAL MOTION...060/17...SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. THE 6Z GFS AND GFDL MODELS CAPTURED THE ACCELERATION OF HENRI. THESE TWO MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND FORM THE BASIS FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR A SLOWING OF THE MOTION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF HENRI. BECAUSE THE SHEAR HAS TEMPORARILY LESSENED...HENRI WILL HAVE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME ONCE THE CENTER EMERGES INTO THE ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH BUILDS NORTH OF HENRI AND THE LOW LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW REVERSES...THE SHEAR IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO INCREASE. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...THE CIRCULATION SHOULD GRADUALLY ELONGATE AND BECOME LOST WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LARGE EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOWN AT 72 HOURS IS ONLY INDIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH HENRI. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1500Z 28.7N 81.2W 25 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 07/0000Z 29.8N 79.4W 30 KT...OVER WATER 24HR VT 07/1200Z 31.0N 77.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 08/0000Z 31.6N 76.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 08/1200Z 32.0N 75.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 09/1200Z 32.5N 74.0W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 10/1200Z 33.5N 71.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 11/1200Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC