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Tropical Storm HENRI


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2003
 
RECENT U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT DATA...ALONG WITH A 2352Z
QUIKSCAT PASS AND SURFACE DATA...INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM 1-MIN
SURFACE WIND SPEED ASSOCIATED WITH HENRI IS LESS THAN 30 KNOTS. 
HENRI IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THIS BASIS AND ALL
WARNINGS ARE LOWERED FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.  SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE BEING ADVECTED EASTWARD ACROSS
FLORIDA WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS BEHIND NEAR
THE CENTRAL WEST COAST OF FLORIDA.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/03 BASED ON THE PAST 24-HOUR
MOTION.  THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
AND A LOW-LEVEL IMPULSE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE VICINITY
OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTH OF
THE IMPULSE IS SHOWN TO PRODUCE 35 KNOT WINDS OVER A LARGE AREA. 
WHETHER OR NOT THIS SCENARIO ORIGINATES FROM THE WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION THAT IS HENRI IS NOT CLEAR...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TO 5 DAYS FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND CALLS THE SYSTEM EXTRATROPICAL
IN 72 HOURS WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH A FASTER
FORWARD SPEED AFTER 72 HOURS.
 
RAIN BANDS ARE STILL OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA AND
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR TODAY.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0900Z 27.7N  83.2W    25 KT
 12HR VT     06/1800Z 28.1N  82.6W    25 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     07/0600Z 29.1N  81.1W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     07/1800Z 30.0N  79.8W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 48HR VT     08/0600Z 30.8N  78.3W    30 KT
 72HR VT     09/0600Z 32.5N  75.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     10/0600Z 34.5N  70.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     11/0600Z 37.0N  62.0W    35 KT
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC