ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2003 RECENT U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT DATA...ALONG WITH A 2352Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND SURFACE DATA...INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM 1-MIN SURFACE WIND SPEED ASSOCIATED WITH HENRI IS LESS THAN 30 KNOTS. HENRI IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THIS BASIS AND ALL WARNINGS ARE LOWERED FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE BEING ADVECTED EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS BEHIND NEAR THE CENTRAL WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/03 BASED ON THE PAST 24-HOUR MOTION. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND A LOW-LEVEL IMPULSE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE VICINITY OF THE DEPRESSION. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTH OF THE IMPULSE IS SHOWN TO PRODUCE 35 KNOT WINDS OVER A LARGE AREA. WHETHER OR NOT THIS SCENARIO ORIGINATES FROM THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS HENRI IS NOT CLEAR...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TO 5 DAYS FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND CALLS THE SYSTEM EXTRATROPICAL IN 72 HOURS WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH A FASTER FORWARD SPEED AFTER 72 HOURS. RAIN BANDS ARE STILL OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA AND 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR TODAY. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 27.7N 83.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 06/1800Z 28.1N 82.6W 25 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 07/0600Z 29.1N 81.1W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 07/1800Z 30.0N 79.8W 30 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 08/0600Z 30.8N 78.3W 30 KT 72HR VT 09/0600Z 32.5N 75.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 10/0600Z 34.5N 70.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 11/0600Z 37.0N 62.0W 35 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC