Tropical Storm HENRI

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TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2003
 
AT 06Z...AN IR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A 1001 MB CENTRAL
PRESSURE AND 43 KNOTS WIND SPEED AT 1500 FEET FLIGHT LEVEL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  A SECOND PASS AT 0742Z RESULTED IN A 1000
MB PRESSURE.  INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A SMALL BUT INCREASING
CDO FEATURE NEAR AND EAST OF CENTER.  THIS DATA BARELY QUALIFIES
THE DEPRESSION TO BE UPGRADED TO A 35-KNOT TROPICAL STORM.  THE
SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSES ABOUT 20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM AND THE GFS INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE IN SHEAR THROUGH 48
HOURS FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SHEAR.  THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION TO ABOUT 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AFTER WHICH THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER LAND.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE 090/06.  THE STORM IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A
DEEP-LAYER-MEAN SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT LEAVING A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THE GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS ABOUT A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH ONLY SMALL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THIS NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE FOR 5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL TO THE RIGHT OF A
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.
 
RAINFALL OVER LAND IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA GULF
COAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND TODAY AS THE CDO FEATURE
MOVES EAST AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD.  THIS RAIN POTENTIAL AND THE
THREAT OF INLAND FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE A PRIMARY CONCERN IN
CONNECTION WITH THIS STORM.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0900Z 27.7N  84.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     05/1800Z 28.0N  83.7W    40 KT
 24HR VT     06/0600Z 28.7N  82.6W    45 KT
 36HR VT     06/1800Z 29.6N  81.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     07/0600Z 30.8N  80.2W    40 KT...BACK OVER WATER
 72HR VT     08/0600Z 32.9N  77.6W    40 KT
 96HR VT     09/0600Z 34.5N  74.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     10/0600Z 36.5N  70.5W    25 KT
 
 
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