ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2003 AT 06Z...AN IR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A 1001 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE AND 43 KNOTS WIND SPEED AT 1500 FEET FLIGHT LEVEL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A SECOND PASS AT 0742Z RESULTED IN A 1000 MB PRESSURE. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A SMALL BUT INCREASING CDO FEATURE NEAR AND EAST OF CENTER. THIS DATA BARELY QUALIFIES THE DEPRESSION TO BE UPGRADED TO A 35-KNOT TROPICAL STORM. THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSES ABOUT 20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AND THE GFS INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE IN SHEAR THROUGH 48 HOURS FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SHEAR. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION TO ABOUT 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AFTER WHICH THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER LAND. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE 090/06. THE STORM IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER-MEAN SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT LEAVING A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS ABOUT A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH ONLY SMALL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THIS NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL TO THE RIGHT OF A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE. RAINFALL OVER LAND IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA GULF COAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND TODAY AS THE CDO FEATURE MOVES EAST AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. THIS RAIN POTENTIAL AND THE THREAT OF INLAND FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE A PRIMARY CONCERN IN CONNECTION WITH THIS STORM. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0900Z 27.7N 84.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 05/1800Z 28.0N 83.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 06/0600Z 28.7N 82.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 06/1800Z 29.6N 81.5W 35 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 07/0600Z 30.8N 80.2W 40 KT...BACK OVER WATER 72HR VT 08/0600Z 32.9N 77.6W 40 KT 96HR VT 09/0600Z 34.5N 74.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 10/0600Z 36.5N 70.5W 25 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC