Hurricane FABIAN

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2003
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FABIAN REMAINS A WELL ORGANIZED
HURRICANE WITH A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION AND
GOOD OUTFLOW. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW
ABOUT 90 KNOTS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
FABIAN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER COOL WATERS AND IT SHOULD BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING 055/20...AND IS EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THEREAFTER...AS FABIAN BECOMES A FULL FLEDGED EXTRATROPICAL
STORM...THE GLOBAL MODELS OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS.  ONE..THE
SYSTEM ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST...SLOWS DOWN AND MEANDERS AS AN
OCCLUDED CYCLONE. TWO...THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES TO THE
NORTHEAST...SLOWS DOWN...AND THEN MOVES OFF TOWARD THE EAST. THIS
LAST SCENARIO IS REFLECTED IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY FORECAST
WHICH WAS BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM NCEP/OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0300Z 38.5N  57.2W    90 KT
 12HR VT     07/1200Z 40.2N  53.9W    80 KT
 24HR VT     08/0000Z 43.5N  48.9W    70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     08/1200Z 48.0N  42.5W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     09/0000Z 50.6N  36.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     10/0000Z 55.9N  26.6W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     11/0000Z 58.6N  22.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     12/0000Z 60.0N  20.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
NNNN