ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 42 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2003 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FABIAN REMAINS A WELL ORGANIZED HURRICANE WITH A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION AND GOOD OUTFLOW. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW ABOUT 90 KNOTS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. FABIAN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER COOL WATERS AND IT SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING 055/20...AND IS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...AS FABIAN BECOMES A FULL FLEDGED EXTRATROPICAL STORM...THE GLOBAL MODELS OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. ONE..THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST...SLOWS DOWN AND MEANDERS AS AN OCCLUDED CYCLONE. TWO...THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST...SLOWS DOWN...AND THEN MOVES OFF TOWARD THE EAST. THIS LAST SCENARIO IS REFLECTED IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY FORECAST WHICH WAS BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM NCEP/OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0300Z 38.5N 57.2W 90 KT 12HR VT 07/1200Z 40.2N 53.9W 80 KT 24HR VT 08/0000Z 43.5N 48.9W 70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 08/1200Z 48.0N 42.5W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 09/0000Z 50.6N 36.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 10/0000Z 55.9N 26.6W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 11/0000Z 58.6N 22.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 12/0000Z 60.0N 20.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC