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Hurricane FABIAN


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2003
 
FABIAN IS NOT ONLY A SEVERE BUT A LARGE HURRICANE. A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 941 MB AND HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS EXTENDING OUT TO ABOUT 100 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. THE EYE IS DISTINCT AND THE OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN ALL
QUADRANTS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 105 KNOTS. FABIAN HAS THE
CHANCE TO RE-STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER WARM
WATERS AND LOW SHEAR.
 
ONCE AGAIN...THE STEERING PATTERN REMAINS CONTROLLED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO HAS
BEEN EXTENSIVELY DISCUSSED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.  FABIAN IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH...PASS VERY NEAR BERMUDA AS
A SEVERE HURRICANE AND THEN TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. THEREAFTER..FABIAN SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL.
 
PREPARATIONS IN BERMUDA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION SINCE THE
WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE IN BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT 6
HOURS OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT
BERMUDA BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/2100Z 26.4N  64.4W   105 KT
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 28.1N  65.2W   110 KT
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 31.0N  65.5W   110 KT
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 33.5N  64.5W   110 KT
 48HR VT     06/1800Z 36.0N  62.0W   100 KT
 72HR VT     07/1800Z 42.0N  54.0W    70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     08/1800Z 51.0N  40.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     09/1800Z 57.5N  21.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC