Hurricane FABIAN
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HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2003
FABIAN IS NOT ONLY A SEVERE BUT A LARGE HURRICANE. A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 941 MB AND HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS EXTENDING OUT TO ABOUT 100 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. THE EYE IS DISTINCT AND THE OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN ALL
QUADRANTS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 105 KNOTS. FABIAN HAS THE
CHANCE TO RE-STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER WARM
WATERS AND LOW SHEAR.
ONCE AGAIN...THE STEERING PATTERN REMAINS CONTROLLED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO HAS
BEEN EXTENSIVELY DISCUSSED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. FABIAN IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH...PASS VERY NEAR BERMUDA AS
A SEVERE HURRICANE AND THEN TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. THEREAFTER..FABIAN SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL.
PREPARATIONS IN BERMUDA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION SINCE THE
WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE IN BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT 6
HOURS OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT
BERMUDA BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/2100Z 26.4N 64.4W 105 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 28.1N 65.2W 110 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 31.0N 65.5W 110 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 33.5N 64.5W 110 KT
48HR VT 06/1800Z 36.0N 62.0W 100 KT
72HR VT 07/1800Z 42.0N 54.0W 70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 08/1800Z 51.0N 40.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 09/1800Z 57.5N 21.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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