ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2003 FABIAN IS NOT ONLY A SEVERE BUT A LARGE HURRICANE. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 941 MB AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUT TO ABOUT 100 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE EYE IS DISTINCT AND THE OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 105 KNOTS. FABIAN HAS THE CHANCE TO RE-STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER WARM WATERS AND LOW SHEAR. ONCE AGAIN...THE STEERING PATTERN REMAINS CONTROLLED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO HAS BEEN EXTENSIVELY DISCUSSED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. FABIAN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH...PASS VERY NEAR BERMUDA AS A SEVERE HURRICANE AND THEN TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THEREAFTER..FABIAN SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. PREPARATIONS IN BERMUDA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION SINCE THE WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE IN BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 26.4N 64.4W 105 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 28.1N 65.2W 110 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 31.0N 65.5W 110 KT 36HR VT 06/0600Z 33.5N 64.5W 110 KT 48HR VT 06/1800Z 36.0N 62.0W 100 KT 72HR VT 07/1800Z 42.0N 54.0W 70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 08/1800Z 51.0N 40.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 09/1800Z 57.5N 21.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC