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Hurricane FABIAN


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2003
 
A NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT SUPPORTING THE CBLAST EXPERIMENT MADE AN EYE
PENETRATION AROUND 03/2245Z AND FOUND A 738 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF
127 KT IN THE NORTH QUADRANT AND ALSO MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 939 MB. IN ADDITION...AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE REPORTED A WIND SPEED
OF 142 KT AT 28 METERS ABOVE THE SURFACE. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION
...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 110 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/08. FABIAN HAS ACTUALLY MADE A
NORTHWARD JOG...AROUND 335/07...DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...
THIS IS LIKELY JUST A TEMPORARY MOTION DUE TO SOME RE-ORGANIZATION
OF THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION AND EYEWALL. A MOTION BACK TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO RESUME SHORTLY. THE 03/18Z GLOBAL
AND REGIONAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD FROM THE
PREVIOUS RUNS AND...UNFORTUNATELY...THE RECENT NORTHWARD JOG BY
FABIAN HAS ALSO RESULTED IN A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK BRINGS FABIAN
DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BERMUDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS OR SO.

WHILE CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL HAVE WARMED...THE EYE HAS BECOME
BETTER DEFINED AND MORE CIRCULAR...AND THE DIAMETER HAS DECREASED
DOWN TO AROUND 18-20 NMI. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS INCREASED AND
EXPANDED IN ALL QUADRANTS...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST WHERE PREVIOUS
WESTERLY SHEAR IS NO LONGER APPARENT. DRY AIR HAS BEEN NOTED
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS AND THIS MAY BRING
ABOUT SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS...BUT THE
OVERALL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AND WARM SSTS OF NEAR 29C FAVOR A
STEADY OR SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL INTENSITY FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0300Z 23.5N  63.1W   110 KT
 12HR VT     04/1200Z 24.9N  64.0W   110 KT
 24HR VT     05/0000Z 27.1N  65.1W   115 KT
 36HR VT     05/1200Z 29.7N  65.7W   115 KT
 48HR VT     06/0000Z 32.4N  65.3W   105 KT...DUE WEST OF BERMUDA
 72HR VT     07/0000Z 38.5N  61.0W    80 KT
 96HR VT     08/0000Z 47.0N  49.5W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     09/0000Z 55.5N  32.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC