ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2003 A NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT SUPPORTING THE CBLAST EXPERIMENT MADE AN EYE PENETRATION AROUND 03/2245Z AND FOUND A 738 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 127 KT IN THE NORTH QUADRANT AND ALSO MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 939 MB. IN ADDITION...AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE REPORTED A WIND SPEED OF 142 KT AT 28 METERS ABOVE THE SURFACE. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION ...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 110 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/08. FABIAN HAS ACTUALLY MADE A NORTHWARD JOG...AROUND 335/07...DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER... THIS IS LIKELY JUST A TEMPORARY MOTION DUE TO SOME RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION AND EYEWALL. A MOTION BACK TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO RESUME SHORTLY. THE 03/18Z GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS AND...UNFORTUNATELY...THE RECENT NORTHWARD JOG BY FABIAN HAS ALSO RESULTED IN A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK BRINGS FABIAN DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BERMUDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS OR SO. WHILE CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL HAVE WARMED...THE EYE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND MORE CIRCULAR...AND THE DIAMETER HAS DECREASED DOWN TO AROUND 18-20 NMI. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS INCREASED AND EXPANDED IN ALL QUADRANTS...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST WHERE PREVIOUS WESTERLY SHEAR IS NO LONGER APPARENT. DRY AIR HAS BEEN NOTED WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS AND THIS MAY BRING ABOUT SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS...BUT THE OVERALL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AND WARM SSTS OF NEAR 29C FAVOR A STEADY OR SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL INTENSITY FORECAST. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 23.5N 63.1W 110 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 24.9N 64.0W 110 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 27.1N 65.1W 115 KT 36HR VT 05/1200Z 29.7N 65.7W 115 KT 48HR VT 06/0000Z 32.4N 65.3W 105 KT...DUE WEST OF BERMUDA 72HR VT 07/0000Z 38.5N 61.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 08/0000Z 47.0N 49.5W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 09/0000Z 55.5N 32.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC