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Hurricane FABIAN


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2003
 
EYEWALL CONVECTION WARMS AND COOLS...BUT OVERALL THE SATELLITE
T-NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN A LITTLE SINCE THE 06Z RECONNAISSANCE
MISSION.  WHILE THE WINDS MAY NOT BE QUITE 120 KT...WE PREFER TO
LEAVE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY ALONE UNTIL THE NEXT FLIGHT NEAR 18Z.
AS IT WAS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...THE OUTFLOW LOOKS A LITTLE
PINCHED ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A
BAND OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS APPROACHING THE HURRICANE.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT THAT THE UPPER ANTICYLONE
ASSOCIATED WITH FABIAN WILL ELIMINATE THESE WESTERLIES.  FABIAN IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
THE MOTION OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN 295/9...AND RIGHT OF THAT
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THIS TURN TO THE RIGHT...AWAY FROM THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.  THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY
APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THIS TURN OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  BEYOND 72 HOURS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
IN THE FORECAST ACCELERATION...WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS EAST AND
FAST AND THE GFS AND GFDL MORE WEST AND SLOW.  THE CONSENSUS OF
THESE FOUR MODELS HAS PERFORMED SPECTACULARLY WITH FABIAN SO
FAR...WITH A MEAN ERROR AT 4 DAYS OF ONLY 40 NM.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN FOLLOWING THIS CONSENSUS AND I SEE NO REASON TO
CHANGE THAT THINKING NOW.
 
ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS OF
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...LARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS/WAVES FROM
FABIAN SHOULD IMPACT THESE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/1500Z 20.3N  60.4W   120 KT
 12HR VT     03/0000Z 20.9N  61.6W   120 KT
 24HR VT     03/1200Z 22.2N  62.9W   120 KT
 36HR VT     04/0000Z 23.5N  64.2W   115 KT
 48HR VT     04/1200Z 25.1N  65.3W   110 KT
 72HR VT     05/1200Z 29.5N  67.0W   105 KT
 96HR VT     06/1200Z 35.5N  66.5W    95 KT
120HR VT     07/1200Z 43.0N  61.0W    85 KT
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC